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Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy Piger, Howard J. Wall; Business Cycle Phases in U. The Review of Economics and Statistics ; 87 4 : — The U. We apply a regime-switching model to state-level coincident indices to characterize state business cycles in this way. We find that states differ a great deal in the levels of growth that they experience in the two phases: Recession growth rates are related to industry mix, whereas expansion growth rates are related to education and age composition. Further, states differ ificantly in the timing of switches between regimes, indicating large differences in the extent to which state business cycle phases are in concord with those of the aggregate economy.
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This Site. Google Scholar. Jeremy Piger , Jeremy Piger. Howard J. Wall Howard J. Author and Article Information. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Jeremy Piger. Received: October 30 Accepted: January 05 Online Issn: The Review of Economics and Statistics 87 4 : — Article history Received:. Cite Icon Cite.
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